文献来源：

Baptiste Boitier;Alexandros Nikas;Ajay Gambhir;Konstantinos Koasidis;Alessia Elia;Khaled Al-Dabbas;Şirin Alibaş;Lorenza Campagnolo;Alessandro Chiodi;Elisa Delpiazzo;Haris Doukas;Arnaud Fougeyrollas;Maurizio Gargiulo;Pierre Le Mouël;Felix Neuner;Sigit Perdana;Dirk-Jan van de Ven;Marc Vielle;Paul Zagamé;Shivika Mittal.A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero[J].Joule,2023,Vol.7(12): 2760-2782/WXFX_A_multi-model_analysis_of_the_EUs_path_to_net_zero.pdf

文章摘要：

The EU has committed to becoming a net-zero economy by 2050, with many member states having integrated this goal into national strategies. However, the bloc’s path toward achieving these targets remains unclear. We use five whole-system climate-economy models and two sectoral models to explore how the EU can keep net zero within reach by mid-century, offering insights into intermediate milestones and implications at sectoral and national levels. Our results indicate that a 62% emissions reduction in the Emissions Trading System and 40% in the Effort Sharing Regulation, compared with 2005 levels, are in line with cost-optimal paths toward the bloc’s 55% emissions cuts target by 2030. Bridging the gap with net zero in 2050 entails near-complete decarbonization of ETS, total decarbonization of electricity, and complete phaseout of unabated coal power by 2040, as well as rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies and an 80% diffusion of renewables in the EU electricity mix by 2050.

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